Next Race 

November 7th

Exeter (Ground; Good) 

Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase; (Grade 2) 2m1f109y

Six go to post for this. Paul Nicholls has won four of the last ten runnings of this while the Tizzards also have a good record with Joe winning the last two and Colin the 2021 race. Last year's winner JPR One reappears here. He beat Djelo three parts of a length only having to be pushed out. He failed to win in four subsequent starts. He races off a mark 4lb higher than last year but he does run well fresh. Kalif Du Berlais is still only a 5yo so he should improve plenty from last year when he made his Chase debut. He fell first time out, won his next two but then failed to stay the 2m4f on heavy ground at Sandown in February. Given a break he reappeared at Aintree in the Grade 1 Maghull and putting in a terrific round of jumping to win by over 3l and while his two main rivals may have disappointed you can't ignore how much Nicholls and Harry Cobden think of this horse. The Venetia Williams stable is only getting going now and has had just four runners so far but Djelo showed it could be in form winning the Charlie Hall last Saturday. Her runner Martador has had plenty of experience chasing having run over the larger obstacles sixteen times winning five and being placed in seven. Those five wins came consecutively between March and November last year. However the Handicapper may have caught up on him and he was well beaten in his subsequent five starts. According to his trainer Jane Williams, Saint Segal is much more confident this season having appeared to mature more. He won on Seasonal debut beating Il Ridoto by almost 5l in a Handicap Chase at Chepstow last month. He is the likely pace in the race and will have no problem with the trip and the quicker the ground the better. Thistle Ask and Here Comes Georgie are both 9lb out of the Handicap and will be hoping for crumbs should something befall the others. Joe Tizzard says the best time to catch JPR One is first time out but Paul Nicholls claims that Kalif Du Berlais is right up there with the best 2m chasers he has trained which is some accolade. Kalif Du Berlais for me.

Selection; Kalif Du Berlais

Best Alternative; JPR One

November 6th

Clonmel (Going; Yielding To Soft)

Clonmel Oil Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f

A small field of four and Willie Mullins, who has won seven of the last ten runnings including the last three, has two of the field, Il Etait Temps heads the market. After winning atthe Punchestown Festival in 2024 he wasn't seen again until last April when he beat Jonbon by over 5l over 2m. He won the Grade 1 Manifesto at Aintree over 2m4f so this trip shouldn't be a problem and he wears a tongue tie and a hood. He has to concede 9lb to his two main rivals which could make it interesting but at 7yo he should still be improving. One of those rival's is his stablemate Gentleman De Mee. He seems to reserve his best form for the Spring and he was beaten by big double digit distances in three starts last season and then went down by almost 6l to Senecia on Heavy over 2m4f in the Grade 2 Webster Cup at Navan in March. He then came out and won the Topham Chase off a mark of 155 having been as high as 165 a year before. The 2024 Irish National winner, Intense Raffles starts his season off here having pulled up in Aintree. It's a trip short of his optimum so he's probably best watched. Senecia, despite winning the Webster Cup where she beat El Fabiolo, Filo Dor, Gentleman De Mee and Grangeclare West, is really inconsistent winning just two of sixteen starts over fences and been placed four times. In the Fortria Chase at Navan last November he was beaten just over 1l into third by Found a Fifty and Solness on Yielding so he is capable of a big run but comes with a health warning. Although his price is short enough, 1/2, for a lot of people it's hard to oppose Il Etait Temps given the profile of his opponents although if it came up heavy a very small wager on Senecia might be worthwhile.

Selection; Il Etait Temps

Best Alternative; Senecia (if going changes to Heavy) half point win.

November 1st

Down Royal (Going; Good To yielding)

Champion Chase (Grade 1) 3m

The course had 9mm rain overnight but with strong winds the Going remains Good To Yielding on the Hurdles Course and Good, Good To yielding in places on the Chase course.

Seven have been declared for this, the first Grade 1 of the season and the market is headed by Envoi Allen who has won two of the last three runnings and was a neck second in the other. In all he's won five of his six starts on the course and runner up in the other, making him a bit of a course specialist. It also tells us that he runs well first time out. Ground will not inconvenience him and his Jockey, Darragh O'Keeffe is quite bullish about his chances. However he is an 11yo which is a slight negative. Hopefully enough rain will get into the ground to let Spillane's Tower take his chance. He has won on yielding when beating Monty's Star at Punchestown last year but if it stays good he must be a doubtful starter. He disappointed on good ground in the King George last December and was no match for Gallopin Des Champs at Punchestown on Yielding. On his only other start last season he was a half length second to Fact To File in the John Durkan. Found A Fifty got last season off to a great start winning the Grade 2 at this meeting and following up in the Grade 2 Fortria at Navan a fortnight later. However he had two disappointing runs at Leopardstown and Cheltenham before winning the Grade 2 at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting. He steps up to 3m for the first time and Jack Kennedy has opted for him over stablemates Stellar Story and Western Fold. The latter, who won the Galway Plate, completed the four timer in the PWC Chase (Grade 2) at Gowran where he readily accounted for Affordale Fury by just over 4l on Yielding To Soft ground. Affordale Fury was having his first start since February so can be expected to come on for that run. He's obviously had his problems as that February run was his first since November 2023. Back in the Spring of that year he went down by 1l to Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlet at Cheltenham and was a 10l second to Gaelic  Warrior at Punchestown. Stellar Story won the Albert Bartlett in 2024 and beat Search For Glory in the Florida Pearl on Chase debut last November on Soft. I think ground will be key for him and the more rain the better. There are a few if and buts about some of these but Found A Fifty is now coming into his prime and is worth a shout here at 11/2 with Boyle Sports amongst others.

Selection; Found A Fifty

Best Alternative; Spillane's Tower 

Kildress Plumbing Chase (Grade 2) 2m3f120y

Gordon Elliott has won four of tha last five runnings of this including the last three and has three of the six runners here with his Firefox heading the market at 5/6. He won comfortably on chase debut at this meeting last year but in five subsequent starts he failed to win albeit coming up against some top class performers. In his next sgtart after Down Royal he was beaten half a length in third place in the Grade 1 Drinmore by Croke Park and Heart Wood with Gorgeous Tom, who seemed to have been left behind after the second last, a further half length behind in fourth in a driving finish. He was a well beaten favourite behind Caldwell Potter at Cheltenham before going down by over 4l to Spindleberry in Grade 1 Gold Cup at Fairyhouse at Easter. Gorgeous Tom had won his Novice in a Grade 3 at Cork twelve months ago but in two subsequent starts after Fairyhouse he was beaten over 8l by Lecky Watson at Cheltenhma and by 32l by Champ Kiely at Punchestown both over the extended 3m. I'm not surprised they went up to 3m after the 2m4f of the Drinmore as the way he finished suggested  he had been caught for speed two fences out but he finished best of all. It's interesting that he starts off here over the intermediate trip. Speculatrix gets the Mares allowance and comes here race fit having been campaigned throughout the summer. She's won two of her four starts over fences, the lates in a Listed Novice at Chepstow and connections will be hoping for a bit of Black Type for her as her rating of 127 leaves her a fair bit behind some of the others but conditions mean . Her Stablemate Croke Park on the evidence of the early market is third choice of the Elliott team although that maybe is not surprising given that this race is short of his best trip. He had entries for the Charlie Hall and the Champion Chase today but Gordon probably feels that a hard race at this stage is not what he wants. Paddock inspection will tell us a lot and I'll be there making notes. His final two starts were disappointing having completed a hat trick at Christmas and beaten 5l by Ballyburn at the DRF and he has to concede 7lb to Gorgeous Tom and 10lb to Firefox. The rest look outclassed. Firefox is running over his optimum trip around a course where he is two from two while his main market rival has to concede 3lb to him.  

Selection; Firefox

Best Alternative; Gorgeous Tom

Wetherby (Going; Good )

The West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade 2) 3m

Just five go to post and Strong Leader shades favouritism from Potters Charm. Strong Leader had just the four starts last season winning the Long Distance at Newbury on debut before trailing in 75l behind the winner in the Long Walk at Ascot after which he had a wind op. He then went to Cheltenham in January where he was 8l behind Gowel Road after which he was off until Aintree where he had to be ridden a bit more prominently than he likes because of the slow pace and finished second almost 3l behind the winner Hiddenvalley Lake. He's the highest rated horse in the race but has to concede between 3lb and 8lb to his rivals. Potters Charm ran up a sequence of five wins between March and December last year four of them over hurdles including the Grade 1 Formby at Aintree. The latter was over 2m but his other hurdle wins were at 2m4f and 2m5f.  He was beaten in his next two starts to finish the season. He's had a wind op and steps up to this trip for the first time under rules. Take No Chances won the Listed Mares at this meeting last season following a placed effort in a valuable handicap at Chepstow three weeks previously She follows a similar route here having run in the same Chepstow race. After her win here she went down by 2l to Wodhooh at Cheltenham then beat Kargese by three parts of a length at Ascot before being no match for Lossiemouth on her next two starts. She steps up to 3m for the first time. Winter Fog has been a good servant to connection winning six and placed nine times in thirty one starts. However he is now 11yo. He should be race fit having run a few times this summer the latest in the Cesarewitch earlier this month where he finished 11l behind the winner having won a ladies Maiden around Tramore. Doddiethegreat wears a tongue tie and cheek pieces. The latter were applied after he pulled up in two starts last Decmeber and January and they appear to have made a difference as he went on to beat Jeriko Du Reponet in the Pertemps final at Cheltenham and then those places were reversed at Punchestown. Now a 9yo he'll be staying over hurdles as he didn't take to fences. All prize money he earns goes to the Doddie Weir Foundation so nobody would be grudge him a win. Strong Leader likes to come off a strong gallop and while a few of these like to race prominently I wonder if anyone is prepared to make it. Nonetheless Strong Leader is the best horse in the race and might just have enough to win it.  

Selection; Strong Leader

Best Alternative; Take No Chances  

Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2)

Six go to post for this including last year's winner The Real Whacker. However his form dipped aftrr that and he was well beaten in three subsequent runs. He reappeared at in a handicap hurdle at Perth last month and running of a mark 10lb lower than his chase mark he finished over 3l back in second to a well treated winner. He wears first time cheek pieces. Protektorat ended last season  finishing 3l back in second to Jonbon over 2m4f in the Melling at Aintree. He had finished a long way behind Fact To File in the Ryanair at Cheltenham having put Djelo to the Sword over 2m6f at Windsor with the latter 23l back in second. That was a turnaround as the placings had been reversed the time previously over 2m4f in the Peterborough at Huntingdon. He's a consistent sort and in his last eleven starts he's won twice , placed six times and only been out of the first four once. He wears a tongue tie having had wind ops in the past. Shark Hanlon sends over Hewick who warmed up for this winning a three runner Hurdle race at Thurles last month. He couldn't handle the ground in Auteuil last May but a repeat of his run in the Champion Chase at Down Royal on this day last year where he went down by half a length to Envoi Allen will put him in the shake up. After been trounced by Protektorat at Windsor Djelo beat Hitman in the Denman at Newbury but his nexttwo runs were abysmal beaten 65l and 37l at Cheltenham and Aintree. There is a theory that he's an Autumn horse and prior to winning the Peterborough last December he was a close second to JPR One in the Haldon Cup. Indeed six of his seven wins have come before the end of December. Pic D'orhy won on seasonal debut at the end of November last year and wasn't seen again until February when winning the Grade 1 Ascot Chase from Corbetts Cross by 10l. On his next and final start he pulled up behind Gaelic Warrior at Sandown in April. He's very consistent but the furthest he's ever run before was 2m5f. GA Law was beaten 16l by Djelo in the Denman and Pulled Up on his next two starts before running a good race to finish third, beaten just over 5l, to Gaelic Warrior at Sandown last April. Last year's winner The Real Whacker has to concede weight to a number of his rivals and with the ground staying Good Hewick might be worth a bet.

Selection; Hewick

Best Alternative; Protektorat

October 26th

Aintree (Going; Good)

Old Roan Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 2m3f200y Mildmay Course

Seven go to post and it's made a tricky one to judge by virtue of the fact that none of them have had a run since April. Imperial Saint heads the market and looking at his form you can see why. He started last season here at Aintree off a mark of 124 and finished the season with a mark of 144. In that time he won three races, all at Aintree and finished with a runner up spot on the same course. Boombawn won his Novice chase in May last year and after  four more unsuccessful efforts won the Grade 2 Rising Stars at Wincanton in November. He was beaten overv  3l by Impaire Et Passe at the Grand National Meeting last April. He won over hurdles here the race before his Novice win so he acts on the course but has to concede 9lb to the favourite. Master Chewy has won three and been placed in four from thirteen runs over fences He has winning form around here at thsi meeting in 2023 and in April last year he was beaten a head by Found A Fifty. He beat Liberty Hunter in Grade 2 Game Spirit at Newbury last February but followed that getting well beaten by Fact To File (22l) in the Grade 1 Ryanair at Cheltenham and by Il Etait Temps (25l) in the Grade 1 Celebration at Sandown last April. Ahoy Senor was just over 2l back in third behind Minella Drama here last year but it went downhill after that Pulling Up in his next two starts after which he had a wind op in January. He reappeared in the Cheltenham Gold Cup where he fell and then here at Aintree in The Bowl in April he weakened from three out to finish 20l behind the winner. He has good form around the track and this trip should suit him better but he has to concede weight all around. Hitman was second in last year's race which has been the story of his career winning 3 and placing second ten times and four third places in 25 chase starts. He runs with cheek pieces and a tongue tie having had four wind ops.  Last year's winner Minella Drama is another who wears a tongue tie. He's pulled up in three of his last six starts including two of his three starts after winning here. He was beaten 35l in the other. He had a wind op two years ago and has had just seven starts since then so comes with a bit of a health warning for me. Ryan Potter won this two years ago with Jetoile at 25/1. He runs Knockanore here who has gone up 34lb in the handicap since winning by 13l in December over 2m4f and again winning three starts laster over an extende 3m1f at Newcastle by 16l. He's had two runs down the field since but the handicapper has shown him no mercy rising him 15lb after the penultimate run. He runs here off 142. Without seeing them in the flesh it's difficult to know where these are at in terms of fitness but I'll go with Imperial Saint who's trainer the Hobbs/White team seem to have their horse hitting a bit of form now.

Selection; Imperial Saint

Best Alternative; Boombawn

October 24th

Cheltenham (Going; Good To Soft)

The Sharp Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m87y

A tricky contest with twelve going to post and going could play a par in this depending on how much rain comes in the next twenty four hours. Connections gave £180k for Un Sens La Vie after he won his point at the second time of asking. He went on to win a Bumper and Maiden hurdle, his only other starts, comfortably both at Market Rasen. The hurdle win came ten days ago although he should be ok with the turn around as it was no more than a strong piece of work for him. Ground Conditions should be ok. Fortune De Mer wears a first time Hood having raced too keenly at Uttoxeter on his seasonal debut nineteen days ago. He was going best of all two out but found little going to the last finishing almost 5l back in third. That was his first run over hurdles having won one of his four Bumper starts and he should improve for it and if the hood helps him settle he should be a player. Jack Hyde has plenty of experience over hurdles winning three of his seven starts. He also won three of his four Bumpers. He won at odds of 1/7 on seasonal debut having raced keenly over the 2m1f and then went to Chepstow for the 2m4f Persian War where he again raced keenly and was going backwards from two hurdles out to eventually finish a 13l fifth. Interesting that he's dropped back in trip here. Olly Murphy is in scintillating form and has had eight winners from his last nine runners as I write. He's operating at a 52% strike rate for the last fourteen days and runs Sir Galahad here. A six race Maiden on the Flat for John Ferguson he won his first four for Murphy and then a few jumping errors on his next two probably didn't help. He was given some time off after the first of those two runs and resumed in twenty seven days ago. He wears cheek pieces here which he wore for his final three flat starts but didn't wear them over hurdles and they might help his jumping. Charles Byrnes has Run For Mahler. Having won once and been placed twoce in four Bumpers this Mare made her Hurdles debut at Listowel last month and was no match for the useful Carrignoornaspruce going deown by over 5l to finish second. The winner had won the Grade 3 Bumper at Punchestown last April and had been a 13l thrd to Bambino Fever at the DRF so the form is fairly useful. Run For Mahler then went to Thurles eight days ago and beat Qualimita a neck although it looked to me that she had a bit in hand at the finish. Market moves should be noted. John Mc Connell is no starnger to winning at this meeting and is represented by Jackson Lamb who has won his last two at Bellewstown and Kelso. He won the fist of those quite comfortably but had to work hard at Kelso to justify his odds on favouritism, getting home by a neck from Jentobello.. The Last Cloud has won his last three, all at Perth and all as Favourite. This is a big step up. Tony Mullins sends over Paul's Dream who has won two and palced second three times in twelve Hurdle starts. Two of those wins and two places have come in his last four starts. Doctor Blue has his first start over hurdles having won one of three Bumper starts and is worth keeping an eye given the Sam Thomas / Doug Walters connection. Mr Loughlan has won his last two but takes an big step in Grade here. Un Sens A La Vie looked impressive the last day and won't be inconvenience by ease in the going while I expect a better run from both Fortune De Mer and Jack Hyde and while there may be a lurker among the rest I'll go with Un Sens A La Vie

Selection; Un Sens A La Vie

Best Alternative; Fortune De Mer

October 10th

Chepstow (Going; Good To Soft)

Persian War Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m3f100y
Eight runners and a tricky contest to pick over and one very interesting hurdling deburant. Queensbury Boy is a clear favourite in the early betting. He won a Point, a Bumper and two hurdle races in five starts before a disappointing run in the Grade 1 Novice hurdle over 2m4f last May at the Punchestsown Festival. He’s been rateD 131 by the handicapper and with his Owner, David Maxwell, announcing his intention to sell all his horses following his retirement from race riding connections will surely have him primed for a big run. Sticktotheplan has to concede 5lb to the favourite following his win in the listed Hurdle at the Galway festival after which he changed Hans and is now with Olly Murphy who has a 32% stroke rate as I write with jockey Sean Bowen even better at 40%. Former owner Cormac Farrell had a high opinion of the horse and he has two wins and two seconds in his four hurdle starts. He took the braveman’s route in Galway that day, held up in rear and crept into it up the rail. He didn’t get a clear run after the last but when the gap appeared he showed a nice turn of foot going away. That was over 2m but he did win his maiden over 2m4f. He wears a first time hood. Moneygarrow has his first run over hurdles. He won his Point and his first Bumper before finishing a 14l runner up to the exceptional Windbeneathmywings at Ascot. On his only other start he was unable to concede 17lb to Our Boy Stan who might be a useful type for Ben Pauling this winter. Fergal O’Brien has won this twice in the last ten years and runs Jack Hyde here. He’s got plenty of experience over hurdles having won three of his six starts, all on Good to Soft. He’s also battle hardened for racing having run in two points and three Bumpers. He has a bit to find on ratings but won on his seasonal debut four weeks ago at Newton Abbot. Gordon Elliott sends over Kainsbourg who won a Listowel two weeks ago. He’s another with plenty of experience, winning twice and being placed 3 times in eight starts over hurdles and winning his two starts in French Bumpers. It’s interesting that James Bowen gets the leg up with the stable jockeys staying at home for Downpatrick. Krak makes his debut for the Twiston-Davies team but still in the Double green silks of Munir and Suede. He was sent to the Crawfords in Antrim for his early education and was third in his first three hurdle starts before winning a handicap at Cork last April. He’s been off since and it’s interesting that he starts off in a Grade 2. One that really interests me is Kilwaughter. He won his only start in Ireland beating subsequent winner The Flying King by three parts of a length with another subsequent winner, Strong Link 15l back in third. The runner up went on to be beaten a neck by I’ll Sort That who then won his Maiden Hurdle by 13l in Listowel two weeks ago and who is expected to be good enough for graded company. Kilwaughter then went to Punchestown where he took a keen hold and could find no extra from a furlong down eventually finishing third. He was bought for £120k after his win in Ireland and his trainer Philip Hobbs won this with the great Thyne Hill so it’s interesting to see him make his hurdles debut here and coincidently Thyne Hill won  this on his hurdles debut. The field is completed by Lavarie who has won his last four starts but still has plenty to find on ratings. Nonetheless his trainer, James Owen, is in great form on the Flat and Jumps so, as always, market moves should be noted. It's a really difficult race to weight up so early in the season but I'm going to take a chance on Kilwaughter with a little each way at 16/1.

Selection; Kilwaughter half point each way 16/1 Bet365

Best Alternative; Moneygarrow

Oct 4th 

Gowran Park 

PWC Champion Chase

Five runners go to post for our first Grade 2 of the season. As I was waiting for my lap top to fire up the favourites have flipped flopped with Galway Plate winner, Western Fold, now favourite from Blood Destiny. That was a very good performance in the Plate carrying 11st 10lb ( Handicap Mark 148)and it completed a hat trick for the winner who had won at Tipperary in May off a mark of 134 and won at Ballinrobe off 138. He turns up here off 157 which is 5lb higher than his main rival Blod Destiny who also has to concede 3lb to Western Fold. Blood Destiny is a consistent sort winning three of his ten starts over fences and being placed in six. He has a win over Spillane's Tower in a Novice Chase (G3) at Navan in March last year but the latter turned the tables in the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse next time. He has had a break since finishing 4l back in second to Zanahiyr at the Galway Festival where he hung right up the straight. Affordale Fury looked like making up into a good horse with good placed form in Grade 1 Hurdles and won on Chase debut at Galway in October 2023. However he was very disappointing next time at Navan the following month and wasn't seen again until last February when he appeared to have the winning of a Chase at Fairyhouse only to blunder and lose momentum at the last fence. This is his first run since then. His jumping has let him down more than once and while he obviously goes well fresh it's probably best to keep a watching brief. Donnchadh Doyle is better known as a Point to Point handler and owns Monbeg Park. Formerly trained by the Owner's brother Sean he was transferred to young trainer Jack Foley over the summer in a bid to re-kindle  his ability following a couple of disappointing runs. However on his debut he pulled up in the Kerry National at Listowel last week and I think the drop back in trip will help although I think he might find a few to good. Rebel Gold is now a 12yo. However he put up a good performance on his last start which was in the Grade 2 at Fairyhouse back in April when he finished fourth 1l behind Blood Destiny who was third on Soft/heavy Ground and they meet on similar terms here. The more I look at it the more I think it's a bit of a banana skin with couple on redemption missions and whether the Handicapper has got his ratings right. One to keep an eye on in the market is Affordale Fury but if the ratings are correct Western Fold has a big swing in his favour at these weights so he gets a tentative selection.

Selection; Western Fold

Best Altrenative; Blood Destiny