Next Race 

October 10th

Chepstow (Going; Good To Soft)

Persian War Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m3f100y
Eight runners and a tricky contest to pick over and one very interesting hurdling deburant. Queensbury Boy is a clear favourite in the early betting. He won a Point, a Bumper and two hurdle races in five starts before a disappointing run in the Grade 1 Novice hurdle over 2m4f last May at the Punchestsown Festival. He’s been rateD 131 by the handicapper and with his Owner, David Maxwell, announcing his intention to sell all his horses following his retirement from race riding connections will surely have him primed for a big run. Sticktotheplan has to concede 5lb to the favourite following his win in the listed Hurdle at the Galway festival after which he changed Hans and is now with Olly Murphy who has a 32% stroke rate as I write with jockey Sean Bowen even better at 40%. Former owner Cormac Farrell had a high opinion of the horse and he has two wins and two seconds in his four hurdle starts. He took the braveman’s route in Galway that day, held up in rear and crept into it up the rail. He didn’t get a clear run after the last but when the gap appeared he showed a nice turn of foot going away. That was over 2m but he did win his maiden over 2m4f. He wears a first time hood. Moneygarrow has his first run over hurdles. He won his Point and his first Bumper before finishing a 14l runner up to the exceptional Windbeneathmywings at Ascot. On his only other start he was unable to concede 17lb to Our Boy Stan who might be a useful type for Ben Pauling this winter. Fergal O’Brien has won this twice in the last ten years and runs Jack Hyde here. He’s got plenty of experience over hurdles having won three of his six starts, all on Good to Soft. He’s also battle hardened for racing having run in two points and three Bumpers. He has a bit to find on ratings but won on his seasonal debut four weeks ago at Newton Abbot. Gordon Elliott sends over Kainsbourg who won a Listowel two weeks ago. He’s another with plenty of experience, winning twice and being placed 3 times in eight starts over hurdles and winning his two starts in French Bumpers. It’s interesting that James Bowen gets the leg up with the stable jockeys staying at home for Downpatrick. Krak makes his debut for the Twiston-Davies team but still in the Double green silks of Munir and Suede. He was sent to the Crawfords in Antrim for his early education and was third in his first three hurdle starts before winning a handicap at Cork last April. He’s been off since and it’s interesting that he starts off in a Grade 2. One that really interests me is Kilwaughter. He won his only start in Ireland beating subsequent winner The Flying King by three parts of a length with another subsequent winner, Strong Link 15l back in third. The runner up went on to be beaten a neck by I’ll Sort That who then won his Maiden Hurdle by 13l in Listowel two weeks ago and who is expected to be good enough for graded company. Kilwaughter then went to Punchestown where he took a keen hold and could find no extra from a furlong down eventually finishing third. He was bought for £120k after his win in Ireland and his trainer Philip Hobbs won this with the great Thyne Hill so it’s interesting to see him make his hurdles debut here and coincidently Thyne Hill won  this on his hurdles debut. The field is completed by Lavarie who has won his last four starts but still has plenty to find on ratings. Nonetheless his trainer, James Owen, is in great form on the Flat and Jumps so, as always, market moves should be noted. It's a really difficult race to weight up so early in the season but I'm going to take a chance on Kilwaughter with a little each way at 16/1.

Selection; Kilwaughter half point each way 16/1 Bet365

Best Alternative; Moneygarrow

Oct 4th 

Gowran Park 

PWC Champion Chase

Five runners go to post for our first Grade 2 of the season. As I was waiting for my lap top to fire up the favourites have flipped flopped with Galway Plate winner, Western Fold, now favourite from Blood Destiny. That was a very good performance in the Plate carrying 11st 10lb ( Handicap Mark 148)and it completed a hat trick for the winner who had won at Tipperary in May off a mark of 134 and won at Ballinrobe off 138. He turns up here off 157 which is 5lb higher than his main rival Blod Destiny who also has to concede 3lb to Western Fold. Blood Destiny is a consistent sort winning three of his ten starts over fences and being placed in six. He has a win over Spillane's Tower in a Novice Chase (G3) at Navan in March last year but the latter turned the tables in the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse next time. He has had a break since finishing 4l back in second to Zanahiyr at the Galway Festival where he hung right up the straight. Affordale Fury looked like making up into a good horse with good placed form in Grade 1 Hurdles and won on Chase debut at Galway in October 2023. However he was very disappointing next time at Navan the following month and wasn't seen again until last February when he appeared to have the winning of a Chase at Fairyhouse only to blunder and lose momentum at the last fence. This is his first run since then. His jumping has let him down more than once and while he obviously goes well fresh it's probably best to keep a watching brief. Donnchadh Doyle is better known as a Point to Point handler and owns Monbeg Park. Formerly trained by the Owner's brother Sean he was transferred to young trainer Jack Foley over the summer in a bid to re-kindle  his ability following a couple of disappointing runs. However on his debut he pulled up in the Kerry National at Listowel last week and I think the drop back in trip will help although I think he might find a few to good. Rebel Gold is now a 12yo. However he put up a good performance on his last start which was in the Grade 2 at Fairyhouse back in April when he finished fourth 1l behind Blood Destiny who was third on Soft/heavy Ground and they meet on similar terms here. The more I look at it the more I think it's a bit of a banana skin with couple on redemption missions and whether the Handicapper has got his ratings right. One to keep an eye on in the market is Affordale Fury but if the ratings are correct Western Fold has a big swing in his favour at these weights so he gets a tentative selection.

Selection; Western Fold

Best Altrenative; Blood Destiny