Next Race 

November 9th

Wincanton (Going; Good)

Rising Stars Novices' Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f

I see some well known Trainers bemoaning the dry spell resulting in small fields. Just five go for this but in the last ten years the biggest field in this was six and there were a few years where only three turned up. It's a competitive contest. Handstands won his only Point before changing hands for £135k. He won his next three stats over hurdles beating the useful Jango Baie in the last of them. He then finished 42l behind Ballyburn at Cheltenham but having had his three wins come in an eight week period it may have been too much for a young horse. He makes his chase debut here. Insurrection has won two and placed three times in all his starts over hurdles. He's had the benefit of a run over fences when second to Springwell Boy in a Listed race at Chepstow in last month. Coming from the Nicholls yard I expect him to improve for that and he will appreciated the ground. Having won eight hurdle races Soul Icon has found it difficult to get his head in front over fences. In seven starts he's been second four times with the widest margin being 1l. He's been placed in Graded company and Good ground should suit. Boomtown was a short head behind Insurrection at Chepstow last month and has plenty of experience winning one of his five starts over fences. Glynn has had eight starts over the larger obstacles. He completed a hat trick of wins in August/ September and was runner up to Numitor last time over this course and distance. However he does have an Unseat and Fall in those Chase runs. Like a lot of the Paul Nicholls horse I expect Insurrection to improve for his Chepstow run and while there's nothing between him and Boomtown his jockey Harry Cobden likes him a lot . Ben Pauling has his string in Good order but I'm reluctant to take a chance on Handstands first time over fences.  

Selection; Insurrection

Best Alternative; Boomtown

Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) 1m7f50y

A disappointing field of just three for this. Harry Derham has sent out thirty tow individual horses who have won fourteen races this season and eleven of them have won first time out. He runs Brentford Hope here who has his first start since finishing 5l back in second behind Daddy Long Legs, trying to conced 8lb to the winner, at the Punchestown Festival. He's had nine sarts over Hurdles winning five and been placed three times and has a rating of 148. Last year's winner Rubaud is rated 147 and has followed last years route winning his prep at Kempton where he impressed giving 6lb and a 7l beating to the useful Kihavah. He was expected to go Chasing this year and I think that will still be the plan after this. Henry De Bromhead sends over Aspire Tower also rated 148. He's had his problems having not run form April 2021 to October last year. He got off the mark last month at the ninth attempt since his last win in October 2020. However he did jump left that day which won't be ideal around here. He was rated 160 in his pomp. Rubaud has to concede 6lb to is rivals and I'd like to see Aspire Tower run again so I'll take a chance with Brentford Hope.

Selection; Brentford Hope

Best Alternative; Rubaud








November 8th

Exeter (Going; Good)

Haldon Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 2m1f109y

Just six go to post for this and it looks reasonably competitive although the going could play a big part in the outcome. JPR One has his first start since finishing down the field in the Arkle at Cheltenham. He's had a wind op since and wears a first time tongue tie. He was impressive last season starting off with a mark of 130 and running in the Arkle off 150. He won twice , was third once and was desperately unlucky at the November Cheltenham meeting when stunbling and unseating after the last when 3l clear and looking a winner. The Tizzards won this twice in the last three years and believe this horse is Grade 1 standard and will decide which route to take after the race. Venetia Williams has run just eight horses this season winning twice. She relies on Djelo here who was kept busy last season. He started off winning his first three starts but was badly hampered and fell at the first next time. He was placed twice on his next starts before finishing down the field at Aintree behind Found A Fifty. Etalon was just in front of Djelo at Aintree having won his three other starts that season and rising 21lb in the ratings. Bryony Frost travels back from France where she's now based to ride Sans Bruit for Paul Nicholls. She won on him on his penultimate start in a Grade 3 at Aintree last April but the 10lb penalty for that seemed to catch him out on his last start at Ayr nine days later when beaten 8l by Tommy's Oscar. He might prefer more juice in the ground. The Tizzards give Harry Cobden the leg up on Scarface. He won three and was placed four times in eight starts last season and had a prep for this when well beaten at Cheltenham last month. Heltenham has his first start since falling at Ayr last April while he was well beaten by Sans Bruit this run before. His form up to that had been pretty decent winning three and been placed twice in six starts and it could be that a couple of hard races took their toll. Looks the second choice of the Skelton pair. JPR One is a strong traveller and jumps well and this might be good enough here.

Selection; JPR One

Best Alternative; Djelo






November 7th

Clonmel (Going; Good)

Clonmel Oil Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f171y

Another tricky little contest where six go to post and acase can be made for most of them. Fakir d'Oudairies, whowon this in 2021, heads the early market. He's been lightly raced since his last win in January 2023 and had a prep run for this in the Kerry National where he didn't jump as well he can and was never a factor. The pace in the race should be Saint Sam who can sometimes be a bit keen. He's won his last two starts at Cork in August and Auteuil in September, both over hurdles. Solness is another on a hat trick having won a three horse race at Sligo last time and beating The Banger Doyle at Listowel in December with the latter winning next time out. Fil Dor had two promising runs last Autumn when runner up to Dinoblue and El Fabiolo but disappointed subsequently beaten a long way in two before pulling up behind Banbridge at Punchestown in April, his last start. Likewise Bronn had two good runs in the Spring of 2023 behind Gerri Colombe and the Real Whacker at Aintree and Cheltenham respectively but in four subsequent runs has disappointed, pulling up in the last two. He's been moved to Tom Gibney's in an effort to rejuvenate him so best watched. Slight preference is for Fakir d'Oudairies notwithstanding the fact the Saint Sam's Trainer, Willie Mullins had won seven of the last ten runnings.

Selection; Fakir d'Oudairies

Best Alternative; Saint Sam








November 2nd

Down Royal (Going; Good To Yielding)

Ladbrokes Champion Chase (Grade 2) 3m

Just five go to post for this and Gerri Colombe is odds on to repeat last year's success where he beat Envoi Allen a neck. Gerri Colombe should be coming into his peak now. He was unfortunate to come up against Gallopin Des Champs at Leopardstown and Cheltenham last season. He's effective on Good ground so conditions should be in his favour. Envoi Allen didn't run again until the Cheltenhma Festival where he went down by 4l to Protektorat in the Ryanair. Hewick's connections have decided not to go to Wetherby for the Charlie Hall and instead have paid €15,000 to supplement him for this. He comes here race fit having finished third to French Dynamit in the Grade 3 at Punchestown last month. Delta Work and Visionarian will looking for scraps with the latter tackling this trip for the first time since winning his point in 2019. It's hard to oppose Gerri Colombe for a trainer who has a great record at this meeting.

Selection; Gerri Colombe

Best Alternative; Hewick

Bottlegreen Ladies Day 2024 Chase (Grade 2).

Another small field of five and Found A Fifty is odds on to win it. He got plenty of experience last season winning three and finishing runner up three times in all his six starts. However he has to carry a 10lb penalty for Grade 1 success which brings some of his opponents into play on ratings. One of those is Pinkerton who completed a hat trick in the Galway Plate and has gone up 17lb since winning at Punchestown last May. Lucid Dreams has won six and placed ten times in twenty one starts but like the rest of the field could be fighting for scraps. Found A Fifty was runner up in the two Arkle's last season (Leopardstown and Cheltenham) and finished up winning the Grade 1 Maghull at Aintree and Pinkerton will have to run a career best to best him I think. 

Selection; Found A Fifty

Best Alternative; Pinkerton

Wetherby ( Going; Good) 3m45y

West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade 2) 3m26y

A trappy enough contest early in the season. Kateira from the inform Skelton yard shades favouritism. Having been runner up to Irish Point in the Grade 1 Mersey Hurdle in April 2023 she had a split season last time running twice in the Autumn and then reapearing at Kempton in March where she may have needed the run and she went on to Aintree and beat the useful Jango Baie (conceded 3lb) by almost 2l. With the Skelton yard running at 29% wins to runs she must have a great chance. Sandor Clegane reverts to Hurdles having had five unsuccessful runs over fences last season. Paul Nolan fits first time cheek pieces and if he can re discover the form of his Novice Hurdle campaign where he won twice and was beaten just over 1l to Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlett he might have a chance. However while he has form on yielding he bombed out his only time on Good To Yielding. Thunder Rock reverts to hurdles after two season's chasing where he won four including two Listed Chases, the latest beating Minella Drama. He pulled up behind Gerri Colombe at Aintree on his final start last season and it's interesting that he reverts to Hurdles where he has a mark of 149 compared to 156 over Fences. Dashel Drasher is now 11yo and vulnerable to young improving horses. He had a couple of fine runs last season including beating Paisley Park. Beacon Edge has changed hands recently but Gordon Elliott must think there's a day in him still. Rated 158 over Hurdles in his pomp the former winner of the Grade 1 Drinmore has lost his way a bit and is now rated 145. He can be a bit of  monkey and others are preferred. I'll be keeping an eye on Allmankind. His owners have moved him from the Skeltons'where he appeared to have gone a bit sour and he's now with James Owen where he appears to have had a bit of a resurgence in form. He was rated 164 over fences a couple of seasons ago and it's interesting he's entered here after a couple of third places in his two runs recently. I'll take a chance on Kateira, whose full brother The New  Lion was hugely impressive during the week, from a yard that's flying at the moment.

Selection; Kateira

Best Alternative; Thunder Rock

Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2) 3m

Having declared Grey Dawning the Skelton's have now withdrawn him due to the quickeming going. That won't inconvenience Bravemansgame whose bedt run last year came in the King George on Good ground. It's arguable that he was a bit unlucky in going down to Hewick by just over 1l having been interfered with at the second last. Conflated unseated at the first on seasonal debut at Punchestown last month, his third unseat in six starts. He was a 7l third in the Ryanair and then was just over 1l behind Jonbon in the Melling at Aintree. He's rated 1lb higher than Bravemansgame. French Dynamite will be race fit having raced over the summer and winning at Punchestown in the Grade 3 last monthbeating Minella Indo. The Real Whacker has been very disappointing since moving up into open company and is best watched. Sam Brown is another who has never really recaptured his novice form while Hang In There has been campaigned over the summer which might help him run into a place of this mark. It's not a race I want to get involved in but despite a poor start to the season the Paul Nicholls' team are showing a bit more form and having had another wind op Bravemansgame might just have enough to win here. If Conflated and Danny Gilligan manage to keep the partnership intact Conflated is capable of running a big race

Selection; Bravemansgame

Best Alternative; Conflated



October 27th

Aintree

Old Roan Chase

Disapointing that only 5 go to post for such an early season prestigious chase. This is a race that has thrown up some suprises in the past. Winner of the Paddy Power Gold Cup and a likable run in the Ryanair last year, Stage Star has in recent years shown that he performs well when fresh. Although there have been some questions over the Nicholl's stable his front running tactics may test his rivals  at this stage of the season. Where is the likely danger to come from? Well all 3 of the main opposition - Ahoy Senor, Minella Dream and Hitman can be hard to follow but always capable of putting in that one good run from time to time. Minella Dream finished 2nd here last year but never really pushed on from that performance for the remainder of the season. Ahoy Senor has produced some very good performances on this course and was only touched off in The Bowl by Gerri Colombe last year. A repeat of that performance certainly puts him in the mix. Hitman went close here in 2022 and is off a decent mark. It's going to be difficult to ignore Dan Skelton's effort to become champion trainer this year and Unexpected Party's win in the Grand Annual Chase is hard to ignore. Given it's so early in the season and Stage Star's record of running well when fresh I think with his front running ability he may be just too sharp for the others.


Selection: Stage Star

Best Alternative: Ahoy Senor


October 11th

Chepstow (Going; Soft)

Persian War Novices Hurdle 2m3f100y (Grade 2)

The first thing I do when looking at the form for this race is check the Paul Nicholls runner. But strangely for someone who has won this in three of the last four running's and four in the last ten he has no runner. However, Fergal O'Brien, who has won it twice in the last ten, is represented by the early favourite Ryan's Rocket. He won his second start in a point and the third, Moon D'Orange, is now rated 130. He has won his last two starts after finishing second to the useful Fiercely Proud who was susequently runner up in the Grade 2 Dovecote and third beaten 2l by Jeriko Du Reponet in a Doncaster Grade 2. He's not ground dependent but hasn't run since May. John McConnell sends over Intense Approach and has to be respected. However he has had his jumping issues and fallen twice and pulled up once in six hurdle starts. He's won a Point and two Bumpers and his last two starts over hurdles and his trainer says he has an engine. His last two wins have come over 2m6f and 2m5f so dropping back in trip, albeit on a stiff course might not be ideal, particularly if there is a bit of pace in the race which will test his jumping. Harry Cobden has been booked for the ride and the horse comes here race fit. Flying Fortune is another who is race fit and gets a valuable 7lb Mares allowance. She won two of her four starts in Bumpers but took a while to register a win over hurdles finally doing it at the sixth atempt. She then ran up a hat trick on her next three starts, the latest coming at Worcester last month. However on he start before her first win she showed a good level of form going down by over 2l to Gale Mahler who went on to win her next two including a Listed race at Galway. Flying Fortune raced off the pace that day and travelled beautifully into contention but couldn't match the winner who is now rate 135. The Skelton's are never shy about tackling these Graded races and they rely on the twice raced Juventus De Brion. In the second of those, back in February, he was third behind a couple of decent sorts who are both rated 132. Vincenzo was fourth in that February race behind Juventus De Brion after which he had a wind op. He went on to win second time out after that in April but hasn't run since. Handlethekettle fell in his two Points back in the Sring. He reappeared over hurdles at Listowel in June finishing over 6l behind the easy winner after which he changed hands fo €50k. He reappeared last month where he went off the odds on favourite and duly obliged despite sweating up beforehand. He's best watched here. A difficult race to predict early in the season but for me Ryan's Rocket has the form in the bookand looks the one for me.

Selection; Ryan's Rocket

Best Alternative; Flying Fortune





Oct 5th

Gowran Park (Going; Good)

PWC Champion Chase 2m4f (Grade 2)

Eight go to post for this and Elliott and Mullins dominate the betting with two runners each. Mullins has won the last four runings of this, three of them with Easy Game who is an absentee this time. Instead he relies on Saint Sam and Saint Roi while Elliott relies on Conflated and Ash Tree Meadow. The latter, who won the 2023 running of the Galway Plate, was disappointing in this year's renewal finishing down the field. Prior to that he had beaten  French Dynamite by over 5l while conceding 8lbs to him and then went down by over 5l to Facile Mode at Punchestown. He missed Listowel to come here but carries a 5lb penalty which leads him vulnerable to a few. Conflated hasn't won in nine starts since beating Kemboy in the Savills Leopardstown in December 2022. His best run was probably in the Melling Chase at Aintree last April when going down by just over 1l to Jonbon. He might need this having not run since May 1st and is likely heading to Down Royal next month for the Ladbrokes where he was a gallant third last year. Saint Sam was a 5l runner up to Easy Game at Listowel in June before a bloodless win over hurdles at Cork, He went to Auteuil last month where he was a 1l winner. However he is another who has to acrry the penalty leaving him at a disadvantage on ratings. After disappointing in the Galway Plate, Saint Roi came out four days later and conceding lumps of weight all around made all to win over 2m2f. Afterwards Willie Mullins was very complimentary about him saying that when things go right for him he's as good as anything. Solness won at Listowel two weeks ago but has a bit to find on ratings. French Dynamite hasn't won in eleven starts since October 2022 and has slipped down in the ratings. He looks held on his run behind Ash Tree Meadow at Killarney in April and probably needs to run a career best to figure here. He's a half brother to Mighty Potter, Caldwell Potter and Brighterdaysahead. Visionarian has had two runs for Gavin Cromwell since moving from Peter Fahy's yard. In the first he never travelled and was pulled up and then was held up in rear and made no impression when beaten 30l in a hurdle race at Bellewstown. Espanito Bello's form figures of late wouldn't inspire apart from a third to Ferny Hollow at Naas in February and he has it all to do on ratings. I think it could be a one two for Mullins and Saint Roi might be the one to lead them home.

Selection; Saint Roi

Best Alternative; Saint Sam