Next Race 

October 26th

Aintree (Going; Good)

Old Roan Handicap Chase (Grade 2) 2m3f200y Mildmay Course

Seven go to post and it's made a tricky one to judge by virtue of the fact that none of them have had a run since April. Imperial Saint heads the market and looking at his form you can see why. He started last season here at Aintree off a mark of 124 and finished the season with a mark of 144. In that time he won three races, all at Aintree and finished with a runner up spot on the same course. Boombawn won his Novice chase in May last year and after  four more unsuccessful efforts won the Grade 2 Rising Stars at Wincanton in November. He was beaten overv  3l by Impaire Et Passe at the Grand National Meeting last April. He won over hurdles here the race before his Novice win so he acts on the course but has to concede 9lb to the favourite. Master Chewy has won three and been placed in four from thirteen runs over fences He has winning form around here at thsi meeting in 2023 and in April last year he was beaten a head by Found A Fifty. He beat Liberty Hunter in Grade 2 Game Spirit at Newbury last February but followed that getting well beaten by Fact To File (22l) in the Grade 1 Ryanair at Cheltenham and by Il Etait Temps (25l) in the Grade 1 Celebration at Sandown last April. Ahoy Senor was just over 2l back in third behind Minella Drama here last year but it went downhill after that Pulling Up in his next two starts after which he had a wind op in January. He reappeared in the Cheltenham Gold Cup where he fell and then here at Aintree in The Bowl in April he weakened from three out to finish 20l behind the winner. He has good form around the track and this trip should suit him better but he has to concede weight all around. Hitman was second in last year's race which has been the story of his career winning 3 and placing second ten times and four third places in 25 chase starts. He runs with cheek pieces and a tongue tie having had four wind ops.  Last year's winner Minella Drama is another who wears a tongue tie. He's pulled up in three of his last six starts including two of his three starts after winning here. He was beaten 35l in the other. He had a wind op two years ago and has had just seven starts since then so comes with a bit of a health warning for me. Ryan Potter won this two years ago with Jetoile at 25/1. He runs Knockanore here who has gone up 34lb in the handicap since winning by 13l in December over 2m4f and again winning three starts laster over an extende 3m1f at Newcastle by 16l. He's had two runs down the field since but the handicapper has shown him no mercy rising him 15lb after the penultimate run. He runs here off 142. Without seeing them in the flesh it's difficult to know where these are at in terms of fitness but I'll go with Imperial Saint who's trainer the Hobbs/White team seem to have their horse hitting a bit of form now.

Selection; Imperial Saint

Best Alternative; Boombawn

October 24th

Cheltenham (Going; Good To Soft)

The Sharp Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m87y

A tricky contest with twelve going to post and going could play a par in this depending on how much rain comes in the next twenty four hours. Connections gave £180k for Un Sens La Vie after he won his point at the second time of asking. He went on to win a Bumper and Maiden hurdle, his only other starts, comfortably both at Market Rasen. The hurdle win came ten days ago although he should be ok with the turn around as it was no more than a strong piece of work for him. Ground Conditions should be ok. Fortune De Mer wears a first time Hood having raced too keenly at Uttoxeter on his seasonal debut nineteen days ago. He was going best of all two out but found little going to the last finishing almost 5l back in third. That was his first run over hurdles having won one of his four Bumper starts and he should improve for it and if the hood helps him settle he should be a player. Jack Hyde has plenty of experience over hurdles winning three of his seven starts. He also won three of his four Bumpers. He won at odds of 1/7 on seasonal debut having raced keenly over the 2m1f and then went to Chepstow for the 2m4f Persian War where he again raced keenly and was going backwards from two hurdles out to eventually finish a 13l fifth. Interesting that he's dropped back in trip here. Olly Murphy is in scintillating form and has had eight winners from his last nine runners as I write. He's operating at a 52% strike rate for the last fourteen days and runs Sir Galahad here. A six race Maiden on the Flat for John Ferguson he won his first four for Murphy and then a few jumping errors on his next two probably didn't help. He was given some time off after the first of those two runs and resumed in twenty seven days ago. He wears cheek pieces here which he wore for his final three flat starts but didn't wear them over hurdles and they might help his jumping. Charles Byrnes has Run For Mahler. Having won once and been placed twoce in four Bumpers this Mare made her Hurdles debut at Listowel last month and was no match for the useful Carrignoornaspruce going deown by over 5l to finish second. The winner had won the Grade 3 Bumper at Punchestown last April and had been a 13l thrd to Bambino Fever at the DRF so the form is fairly useful. Run For Mahler then went to Thurles eight days ago and beat Qualimita a neck although it looked to me that she had a bit in hand at the finish. Market moves should be noted. John Mc Connell is no starnger to winning at this meeting and is represented by Jackson Lamb who has won his last two at Bellewstown and Kelso. He won the fist of those quite comfortably but had to work hard at Kelso to justify his odds on favouritism, getting home by a neck from Jentobello.. The Last Cloud has won his last three, all at Perth and all as Favourite. This is a big step up. Tony Mullins sends over Paul's Dream who has won two and palced second three times in twelve Hurdle starts. Two of those wins and two places have come in his last four starts. Doctor Blue has his first start over hurdles having won one of three Bumper starts and is worth keeping an eye given the Sam Thomas / Doug Walters connection. Mr Loughlan has won his last two but takes an big step in Grade here. Un Sens A La Vie looked impressive the last day and won't be inconvenience by ease in the going while I expect a better run from both Fortune De Mer and Jack Hyde and while there may be a lurker among the rest I'll go with Un Sens A La Vie

Selection; Un Sens A La Vie

Best Alternative; Fortune De Mer

October 10th

Chepstow (Going; Good To Soft)

Persian War Novices Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m3f100y
Eight runners and a tricky contest to pick over and one very interesting hurdling deburant. Queensbury Boy is a clear favourite in the early betting. He won a Point, a Bumper and two hurdle races in five starts before a disappointing run in the Grade 1 Novice hurdle over 2m4f last May at the Punchestsown Festival. He’s been rateD 131 by the handicapper and with his Owner, David Maxwell, announcing his intention to sell all his horses following his retirement from race riding connections will surely have him primed for a big run. Sticktotheplan has to concede 5lb to the favourite following his win in the listed Hurdle at the Galway festival after which he changed Hans and is now with Olly Murphy who has a 32% stroke rate as I write with jockey Sean Bowen even better at 40%. Former owner Cormac Farrell had a high opinion of the horse and he has two wins and two seconds in his four hurdle starts. He took the braveman’s route in Galway that day, held up in rear and crept into it up the rail. He didn’t get a clear run after the last but when the gap appeared he showed a nice turn of foot going away. That was over 2m but he did win his maiden over 2m4f. He wears a first time hood. Moneygarrow has his first run over hurdles. He won his Point and his first Bumper before finishing a 14l runner up to the exceptional Windbeneathmywings at Ascot. On his only other start he was unable to concede 17lb to Our Boy Stan who might be a useful type for Ben Pauling this winter. Fergal O’Brien has won this twice in the last ten years and runs Jack Hyde here. He’s got plenty of experience over hurdles having won three of his six starts, all on Good to Soft. He’s also battle hardened for racing having run in two points and three Bumpers. He has a bit to find on ratings but won on his seasonal debut four weeks ago at Newton Abbot. Gordon Elliott sends over Kainsbourg who won a Listowel two weeks ago. He’s another with plenty of experience, winning twice and being placed 3 times in eight starts over hurdles and winning his two starts in French Bumpers. It’s interesting that James Bowen gets the leg up with the stable jockeys staying at home for Downpatrick. Krak makes his debut for the Twiston-Davies team but still in the Double green silks of Munir and Suede. He was sent to the Crawfords in Antrim for his early education and was third in his first three hurdle starts before winning a handicap at Cork last April. He’s been off since and it’s interesting that he starts off in a Grade 2. One that really interests me is Kilwaughter. He won his only start in Ireland beating subsequent winner The Flying King by three parts of a length with another subsequent winner, Strong Link 15l back in third. The runner up went on to be beaten a neck by I’ll Sort That who then won his Maiden Hurdle by 13l in Listowel two weeks ago and who is expected to be good enough for graded company. Kilwaughter then went to Punchestown where he took a keen hold and could find no extra from a furlong down eventually finishing third. He was bought for £120k after his win in Ireland and his trainer Philip Hobbs won this with the great Thyne Hill so it’s interesting to see him make his hurdles debut here and coincidently Thyne Hill won  this on his hurdles debut. The field is completed by Lavarie who has won his last four starts but still has plenty to find on ratings. Nonetheless his trainer, James Owen, is in great form on the Flat and Jumps so, as always, market moves should be noted. It's a really difficult race to weight up so early in the season but I'm going to take a chance on Kilwaughter with a little each way at 16/1.

Selection; Kilwaughter half point each way 16/1 Bet365

Best Alternative; Moneygarrow

Oct 4th 

Gowran Park 

PWC Champion Chase

Five runners go to post for our first Grade 2 of the season. As I was waiting for my lap top to fire up the favourites have flipped flopped with Galway Plate winner, Western Fold, now favourite from Blood Destiny. That was a very good performance in the Plate carrying 11st 10lb ( Handicap Mark 148)and it completed a hat trick for the winner who had won at Tipperary in May off a mark of 134 and won at Ballinrobe off 138. He turns up here off 157 which is 5lb higher than his main rival Blod Destiny who also has to concede 3lb to Western Fold. Blood Destiny is a consistent sort winning three of his ten starts over fences and being placed in six. He has a win over Spillane's Tower in a Novice Chase (G3) at Navan in March last year but the latter turned the tables in the Grade 1 at Fairyhouse next time. He has had a break since finishing 4l back in second to Zanahiyr at the Galway Festival where he hung right up the straight. Affordale Fury looked like making up into a good horse with good placed form in Grade 1 Hurdles and won on Chase debut at Galway in October 2023. However he was very disappointing next time at Navan the following month and wasn't seen again until last February when he appeared to have the winning of a Chase at Fairyhouse only to blunder and lose momentum at the last fence. This is his first run since then. His jumping has let him down more than once and while he obviously goes well fresh it's probably best to keep a watching brief. Donnchadh Doyle is better known as a Point to Point handler and owns Monbeg Park. Formerly trained by the Owner's brother Sean he was transferred to young trainer Jack Foley over the summer in a bid to re-kindle  his ability following a couple of disappointing runs. However on his debut he pulled up in the Kerry National at Listowel last week and I think the drop back in trip will help although I think he might find a few to good. Rebel Gold is now a 12yo. However he put up a good performance on his last start which was in the Grade 2 at Fairyhouse back in April when he finished fourth 1l behind Blood Destiny who was third on Soft/heavy Ground and they meet on similar terms here. The more I look at it the more I think it's a bit of a banana skin with couple on redemption missions and whether the Handicapper has got his ratings right. One to keep an eye on in the market is Affordale Fury but if the ratings are correct Western Fold has a big swing in his favour at these weights so he gets a tentative selection.

Selection; Western Fold

Best Altrenative; Blood Destiny